The 2022 season was the first one I scored live for the model. It had some great teammate pairings, a title fight for almost 8 races and was, according to the model, the season with the highest quality grid in Formula 1 history up to that point. The mathematical model seeks to eliminate the factor car by only measuring drivers against their teammates.
How Does It Work?
My model was inspired by the amazing f1metrics model and therefore shares a significant portion of its methodology.
Step 1 was to introduce a unified points system. P1 gets 10p, P2 gets 10p*0.72=7.2p, P3 gets 7.2p*0.72=5.18p …. etc. all the way to P20. Driver related DNFs are scored with 0p.
Then the 2 teammates get their points assigned for every race. Races where one driver has mechanical issues are excluded (or corrected if possible). Driver errors and other incidents are also excluded (or corrected if possible). Now the points are tallied up and converted on an s-curve. The difference between the two values of the drivers is the performance difference between them.
In combination with functions for age and experience (I use those of the f1metrics model), doing this with all drivers over a lot of seasons, results in a pretty sturdy web of relative driver performances. While building this web, I am not looking for a compromise of all seasons but instead a most perfect fit.
Season Ratings
Now that I have performance ratings (later referred to as ceiling/pace/potential) for the drivers, I can get a value for the car/team in a season since
(points)=(driver performance)+(car performance)
and therefore
(car performance)=(points)-(driver performance)
The driver errors are then added back in, giving a new points total, and through
(points)-(car performance)=(driver performance)
I get the actual performance of the drivers in that season. Those performance ratings are then translated back over the s-curve to give a “points per race rating” which goes from 0-10. That is then multiplied by 10 to get a neat driver score of 0-100.
As you can see, the major difference to the f1metrics model is the handling of driver errors. In my opinion this results in more accurate ratings as the amount of errors a driver makes can vary widely from season to season. Secondly, it has the advantage of untieing teammates in a season. A drivers rating won’t automatically get boosted just because his teammate is having a shocker.
At its core the model is assessing a drivers ability to score points with
(total points)=(possible points)-(lost points)
This can be abstracted onto the drivers. Simplified the drivers’ season ratings can then be understood as
(driver rating)=(driver pace)-(driver mistakes)
To help give some perspective for the ratings I made these tiers:
- S – above 89
- A – above 82
- B – above 73
- C – above 62
- D – above 50
- F – below 50
From going through all the data and seasons, I would say that generally a good season has a score above 73. Keep in mind, though, that there are no real cut lines. Another thing for perspective is that for the last 20 years the median performance slowly crept from around 60 towards 70. In 2021 it then jumped above 70 and has since stayed in the low/mid 70s.
Each driver has their own entry including a graph documenting the change of their season rating through the races, a short summary and of course the actual rating. Behind the rating (in parentheses) you’ll find the drivers baseline rating for the 2022 season. It roughly equates to pace and can be understood as a ceiling (only for this season since this value moves with age and experience). It gives you a better understanding and context for the actual driver rating in terms of underperformance, mistakes, consistency, speed etc.
The “Left Behind”
20 – Nicholas Latifi – 38.7 (69.5)
Who would have thunk? His expected pace for 2022 based on his time against Russell would have been 69.5, but in reality his pace was around 44. This checks with Nicholas’ own account of his performance:
“I just struggled to get on top of the car. […] This year, ultimately was my worst year out of the 3 years […].”
“The gap to Alex [Albon] this year has been relatively much bigger than the gap to George, but […] I felt much less comfortable with this year’s car.”
– Nicholas Latifi on Beyond The Grid, 02.11.2022
The Williams being the worst car on the grid probably somewhat softened the blow to his rating, as mistakes have little effect, when you’re already driving around in 18th.
19 – Zhou Guanyu – 41.8 (53.7)
Zhou had a couple of rocky races at the beginning of the season. The biggest impact is being felt by a 5-15 at Imola. Excluding that alone would already take Zhou up to 48.5. Unfortunately, by the time he had settled in, the Sauber Alfa Romeo’s weight advantage had faded. That left him with a huge points gap (49-6) to his teammate, Valtteri Bottas, until the end of the season. Within the model, Zhou scored 3.8 points to Bottas’ 10.6 in counting races. While this does look much better, he is still not exactly highly rated. As a young rookie that is not too wierd though. If his current assessment is correct, he’ll grow into an average driver. The problem with that is the general quality of the grid shooting up over the last couple of years. A historically average driver will not look average at all in the coming years. Drivers like Bottas, Perez, Hulkenberg and the like will have less and less of a place in future Formula 1.
The “Scattered Pack”
18 – Mick Schumacher – 57.9 (70.6)
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If it wasn’t for Mick’s toxic relationship with the barriers, he would probably still be on the grid. The model rates him slightly higher than Magnussen on pace (in only his second season), but his time in Formula 1 was all but conclusive so far, because Magnussen himself is not exactly a sturdy benchmark. With Haas being vastly more competitive in the first race than any other, it took until Silverstone and Spielberg for Schumacher’s rating to recover from that first lap contact with Esteban Ocon in Bahrain.
17 – Kevin Magnussen – 62.1 (67.4)
When Kevin Magnussen closes his eyes, does he see orange circles? While he delivered an overall okay season, it is a bit disappointing that someone as experienced as K-Mag still doesn’t know to pick his battles. There is no reason for a Haas driver to ruin his race by fighting that hard against a Mercedes – multiple times. Magnussen is a very fluctuating driver, which makes it difficult to nail him down. It is made even more difficult by his pairing with Romain Grosjean for many years, as Grosjean is a very fluctuating driver himself.
16 – Sergio Perez – 62.5 (73.1)
Perez was having a good first half of the season. Then, all of a sudden, he just couldn’t hold his expected gap to Verstappen. The timing coincides with Red Bull’s upgrade that was introduced at Silverstone. It allegedly gave the car more front end, making it overall faster, especially in the hands of Verstappen. It seems not unlikely that Perez simply couldn’t cope with the new balance, considering his main strength, besides wheel to wheel racing, are rear limited circuits. Should this be true, it would be both relieving and damning for Perez, showing that he is indeed limited by the car but also that Perez is limited in his adaptabilty; made worse by the general consensus that an oversteery car is ultimately faster.
15 – Yuki Tsunoda – 64.6 (70.1)
Although Yuki still made a lot of mistakes, he took a giant leap from his first season (46.4) in that regard. In terms of pace, he is looking promising. Not on the level of the super talents of his generation but good enough to go toe to toe with Gasly and Sainz, once he is in his prime. In 2022 he finished ahead of his teammate in only 5 of 15 counting races, meaning there is still a long way to go.
14 – Daniel Ricciardo – 66.8 (80.2)
Looking at Daniel’s graph one could think he was improving over the season, but that was not the case. The trajectory of his rating is heavily influenced by the Formula 1 Rolex Gran Premio del Made In Italy e dell’Emilia-Romagna 2022, where he basically ended his race at the start while Norris managed to heave the McLaren onto the podium. Throughout the season Ricciardo was off the pace in 7 of the 19 counting races; more than a third. To showcase his constant struggle better I took out the Imola results for the graph below (second image). It shows that most of the season he was spending his time between 65 and 70, not really going anywhere. Unsurprisingly, 2022 wound up being Ricciardo’s worst ever season.
13 – Valtteri Bottas – 67.9 (72.6)
Car good? Bottas good. Car worse? Bottas worse. Valtteri understood to make the most of the car while it was good, not really making any big mistakes, but when the car’s performance faded, so did that consistency. In the second half of the season he allowed himself some off weekends.
12 – Lance Stroll – 68.7 (73.1)
Stroll consistently showed pace over the season. To be fair, he often does, but his mental blackouts prevent him scoring highly. In 2022 his pace had arrived at a point where you could legitimately call it good and his brain dead moments were less than the normal dosage. Combined, these factors pushed him pretty close to the upper half of the grid.
11 – Carlos Sainz – 71.2 (81.4)
2022 was a season to forget for Sainz. He only beat teammate Charles Leclerc once on pace (in Mexico) and he spent the entire season playing catch up, after his rating was torpedoed by recurring trips to the gravel. Only Daniel Ricciardo, Mick Schumacher, Sergio Perez, Zhou Guanyu and maybe Nicholas Latifi sold themselves as short as Carlos Sainz did; not great company, at least in 2022.
10 – Pierre Gasly – 72.9 (81.0)
Compared to 2021, Gasly’s 2022 season might feel a little… meh. However, the model tells a different story. In 2021 he scored 73.9, but the Alpha Tauri was significantly better, fighting for best of the rest, while in 2022 it is rated 2nd worst. The major valley at the beginning of the season is caused by back to back underwhelming races in Imola (P12) and Miami (collision). As of Miami, those constituted 2 out of 3 counting races (because of mechanical issues at the first 2 races).
The “Upper Class”
9 – Alexander Albon – 77.2 (80.6)
With a car that could barely corner, but was a rocket in a straight line, and sometimes unorthodox strategy, Alex Albon had some heroic drives, stealing points wherever possible. Unforgettable are the DRS trains that would make Jarno Trulli blush or stretching a set of tires to the absolute maximum. The model rates the Williams comfortably the worst car on the grid in 2022. Albon was doing bits.
8 – Esteban Ocon – 80.0 (82.8)
Ocon was unspectecular; deceivingly so. He was good and kept mistakes low, but what hurt his rating were penalties (as has become tradition). 2022 finally saw Ocon measured against a well connected driver with a very stable rating in Alonso. 2021 was less representative due to Alonso’s biking accident, 2020 is not consistent with any of his other seasons (and was his first year back), and Perez doesn’t have the sturdiest rating himself. 2023 saw another milestone in Ocon’s rating, as his performance against Gasly (and Alonso’s against Stroll) lead to a major hike that saw him going from a 79 ceiling to almost 83. This is now consistent with Esteban’s deltas to Perez across 2017 and 2018; so he is… back where he started… but more robust. Additionally this reinforces Perez’ rating and everyone connected to him.
7 – Sebastian Vettel – 80.4 (84.6)
Fortunately, Seb ended his career on a high note (compared to the previous 2 seasons). Although the season started as bad as it could get with him missing the first 2 races due to COVID and then immediately crashing out of the third, Vettel got himself into a good rhythm, being only held back by collisions that were mostly not his fault; a distinction the model doesn’t (and couldn’t) make. Especially towards the end, he had some great highlights like the qualifying at Suzuka or the whole race in Austin. The quality of the current (and near future) grid becomes obvious, considering that with a similar performance Vettel was ranked the 4th best driver (with only one driver being significantly better) and won the title in 2012.
6 – George Russell – 80.8 (82.1)
2022 was the first time, a good assessment of George Russell could be made. As first impressions go, he knocked it out of the park. With just 1.3 off his ceiling, he was the most flawless F1 driver of the season. Even his sole real blemish only came about because George, after a crash of his making, voluntarily got out of his car to check on his victim. Generally, it is impressive how often Russell got away with collisions not affecting his race. The Mercedes really seems a way sturdier car than the others.
5 – Lewis Hamilton – 83.1 (88.6)
Thanks to the “quick-in-theory” W13, the first half of 2022 reads like a rollercoaster for Lewis Hamilton. Experiments with set-ups that clearly backfired and further testing destroyed his rating like porpoising down the Baku straight did his spine. From Canada onward, Hamilton started an incredible turn around. He might have even managed to snatch best of the rest if it wasn’t for his magnetic attraction to Verstappen. All in all, 2022 ended up as a pretty average Hamilton season.
4 – Lando Norris – 84.3 (85.8)
Lando Norris is not only very highly rated by the model but also one of the most consistent drivers on the grid. Only fellow Brit and prodigy, George Russell, scored closer to his personal maximum in 2022. Norris does, however, beat out Russell on pace and is projected to have the higher ceiling. The most impressive thing about Lando is still his reliability, even in the face of his undeniable speed. Since his rookie season he has been becoming uncharacteristically spotless for a young driver. He halved his deficit with every season, so far. If this trend holds true he will end the 2023 season with a deficit of around 0.8, putting him at 86.7.
3 – Fernando Alonso – 84.8 (86.4)
Alonso started the season with a luck deficit. Some parts of that don’t have an effect in the model, like the unevenly distributed mechanical issues. Other parts stay hidden. However, luck, given enough races, has a way of evening out. This is exactly what happened at Alpine over the 2022 season. The result is the curve below. Real drawbacks to Alonso’s rating were the first lap collision at Imola, as well as his penalty in Miami. Briefly, between France and Belgium, Fernando was rated ever so slightly higher than Charles Leclerc. Therefore he would have been ranked second in a hypothetical Mid-Season review.
Until a couple of weeks ago, Fernando would have been rated 80.5 (6th). However, current developments strongly suggest a change. The gap between Stroll and Alonso, and, crucially, the gap between Gasly and Ocon point to both Alonso (post unretirement) and Ocon being better than they were previously rated. This means a jump in performance from Alonso twice as big as Rosberg’s for 2016. That is insane. Had he been in this form during his prime, his hat would have been firmly thrown into the GOAT conversation.
The “Dynamic Duo”
2 – Charles Leclerc – 88.2 (91.5)
For the whole of the 2022 season Charles Leclerc was the only driver to ever be rated higher than Max Verstappen and was only barely once rated lower than second, yet in the end, he couldn’t beat Verstappen in the championship. The majority of the blame surely lies with Ferrari, but even in equal cars (and with equal teams) the model wouldn’t support a Leclerc title. Errors in Imola and crucially in France lost him too much ground and Leclerc has only himself to blame for not taking this meaningless ficticious title.
Perspective is everything: 2022 was also Leclerc’s best season to date and compared to Verstappens 5th season, 2019, he actually got closer to his personal ceiling than Max did.
1 – Max Verstappen – 91.0 (92.2)
Yet again Max Verstappen takes the top spot in the models season rankings, even though he couldn’t quite beat his own highscore from a year prior (91.5). Charles Leclerc gave him a good fight, with the duo almost exclusively sharing the top 2 places between each other. Verstappen’s contribution to that fight came at the Monaco weekend, where he finished behind Perez, who won the race (albeit under “certain” circumstances) and at Interlagos, where he and Hamilton couldn’t resist their urges. If Verstappen can turn off those little wobbles, he could seriously make a push for Number One All Time.
A Quick look At The Teams
- Red Bull
- Ferrari
- Mercedes
- McLaren
- Alfa Romeo
- Haas
- Alpine
- Alpha Tauri
- Aston Martin
- Williams
Until the summer break Ferrari and Red Bull were about even. By the end of the season Ferrari had managed to almost claw back Mercedes’ disadvantage. Even more drastic was the decline of Alfa Romeo. They started the season closer to Mercedes than the midfield. Over the whole season, the midfield then becomes very tight, with McLaren, Alfa, Haas, and Alpine all about even on pace (on average). Alpine gets dragged down slightly by their poor reliability. 11 mechanical issues to McLaren’s 2 make a big difference. In the actual constructors standings this got evened out by McLaren’s 7 Daniel Ricciardo issues to Alpine’s 0.
Surprisingly, Mercedes did not have the best performing driver pairing in 2022, scoring 81.9. Because of Hamiltons weak first half, Alpine scored higher at 82.5 with 2 well performing drivers. Even Ferrari was close to the Mercedes duo with 81.2, mainly due to Charles Leclerc.
On the other end, Alfa Romeo takes the crown for worst overall driver pairing in a one-sided matchup. They scored only 55.2, clearly underbidding Williams at 58.4 (owed, of course, entirely to Latifi’s performance) and Haas at 60.0, who were much more evenly bad.
F1 Mathematical Model 
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